5/16/2023 0 Comments World war 3 predictions 2017I don't believe it will.Ĭhina for all its military build-up, knows it still cannot compete with US firepower. Personally, as someone who has reported across Asia for two decades and lived many years in China, I err on the side of peace.Īmerica is crucial to the stability of the region and we cannot afford for it to retreat or to weaken its resolve. As Asia's nations become wealthier and have more resources to devote to their militaries, they seem less interested in avoiding confrontation." "Risk that should be falling is instead rising. In a speech in the United States in 2015 China's President, Xi Jinping, spoke of an opportunity for the two powers to boost global security but he also issued a warning. Since the 1960's peace in Asia has allowed unprecedented growth.Ĭhinese scholar Wu Zurong, in a 2015 article for Foreign Policy magazine called No Thucydides Trap, wrote of how globalisation and the links between China and the US mitigates war.Ĭhina, he wrote, seeks "a modern relationship. In 2015 the Obama administration revealed that Chinese hackers had hacked government personnel files potentially exposing every US state employee.Ĭertainly the world is very different to the time of Thucydides.Įven compared to 1914, we are a more interconnected, economically entwined global community. The US reports massive hacking by groups controlled by the Chinese military. Some fear the war has already begun - in cyberspace. The Thucydides TrapĬyberspace is expected to be the frontline in any confrontation. "Causes trawled from the length and breadth of Europe's pre-war decades are piled like weights on the scale until it tilts from probability to inevitability," he wrote.Īdmiral Chris Barrie says he has been reading Clark's book and thinking how events then mirror events now. How? Clark says political leaders become hostage to events. The world thought it couldn't happen - Germany and Britain were each other's single biggest trading partners the royal families were blood relatives - yet it did. Historian Christopher Clarke's book Sleepwalkers reveals how the assassination of Habsburg heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, on Jin Sarajevo triggered a domino effect that pitted the reigning global power Britain against the rising Germany. In a new century, simmering tensions and geo-strategic alliances would tip the world into all-out war. "Never was any such event, stemming from factors so far back in the past, so inevitable and yet so completely unseen." The French diplomat and political scientist, Alexis de Tocqueville, said of the French Revolution: History can appear as inevitable even as we fail to see it. That quote is often attributed to the great American writer Mark Twain, but its sentiment speaks to us through the ages. "History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme." This is a warning that comes from our past, and if unheeded, will shatter our future. Over kimchi and slices of beef, Admiral Barrie guided me through our region's many tripwires.Ī miscalculation or misunderstanding, he said, could tip us over the edge, countries would be backed into corners and we have no way right now of talking our way out. I was interviewing him for The Link to get his assessment of the North Korean nuclear threat, but his fears expand far beyond the hermit kingdom. ( ABC News)Īdmiral Barrie delivered his warning to me over a Korean barbeque meal in Western Sydney. Admiral (ret.) Chris Barrie says a misunderstanding or miscalculation could tip the region over the edge.
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